On Tuesday we have a brief spell of cold air in the Land of Enchantment with temperatures in the 20s above 10,000 feet Tuesday morning.

The storm associated with the cold air just missed us to the north where it is a full-on deep powder day at Copper Mountain, Loveland, and nearby mountains in Colorado. 

Here is a loop to spark some northern neighbor envy.

Here in the Land of Enchantment, temperatures will warm back up Wednesday to Saturday before another cool down and a chance for light precipitation on Saturday and Sunday.

El Niño and the 2023-2024 Season

OpenSnow's overall 2023-2024 Winter Forecast Preview from October 2023 and my New Mexico-specific 2023-2024 Winter Forecast Preview from November verified fairly well as a typical El Niño winter snowpack pattern emerged this season.

Here was a snapshot of the snowpack on April 7th, 2024 showing the southwest-oriented tilt of above-average snowpack that we would expect based on the historical median in El Niño seasons.

Below is the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's graphic of the precipitation difference from the average for this past winter (Dec-Feb 2023-24 on the left below) and the geographic pattern of precipitation we'd expect for this past winter based on past El Niño winters from 1952-2022 (on the right below).

In NOAA's words, The precipitation pattern for this past winter is a reasonably good match to the El Niño pattern.

So there were no major surprises this season in terms of El Niño. However, there were some nuances for New Mexico and I will dig more into the specifics of New Mexico's 2023-2024 season and how it compared to past strong El Niños in my final wrap-up post this week.

¿Adiós to El Niño?

As the NOAA Climate Prediction Center said in their April 2024 blog, The El Niño of 2023–24 is weakening. Forecasters estimate an 85% chance that El Niño will end and the tropical Pacific will transition to neutral conditions by the April–June period. There’s a 60% chance that La Niña will develop by June–August.

What does this mean for the summer monsoon?

Looking ahead toward summer, many of us are asking the same question as an NM Daily Snow reader sent me last week: What does the current El Niño and/or transition to La Niña mean for the 2024 summer monsoon season in New Mexico?

Well, the short answer is we don't know.

I listened to the latest episode of the University of Arizona's CLIMAS podcast, which I love to turn to as experts on the southwest monsoon, and at the very end of this episode, they caution against trying to predict the summer monsoon in April based on any seasonal outlooks. 

As an example, they reference the European Seasonal Outlook pasted below for June, July, and August which shows below-average precipitation for New Mexico and Arizona. And while this is a scary image from a monsoon standpoint, there is very low confidence in this outlook.

To put the low confidence in perspective, here is the Canadian Seasonal Outlook which shows well-above-average precipitation for June, July, and August.

So we don't know yet what the summer holds for New Mexico, but let's root for the Canadian seasonal outlook above!!

Looking at the last two weeks of April, the main storm track will stay to our north and with it the brunt of any precipitation.

Both the GFS and European Ensembles are aligned that the rest of April will likely be fairly dry for New Mexico.

With no storms on the horizon and all New Mexico lift-accessed skiing wrapped up, I will write my final end-of-season post later this week.

Thanks for reading!

Summer Weather: How To Use OpenSnow

As the snow begins to melt and summer conditions quickly take over, remember that you can use OpenSnow as your go-to weather app during the non-winter months.

Get started by going to...

1. Favorites > Weather
2. Location > Weather
3. Maps > Weather

Switch to using your "Summer" favorites list, check the "Weather" tab on both the Favorites screen and any location screen, and avoid poor air quality & incoming storms with our summer-focused map layers in the OpenSnow app.

You can also view the hourly forecast for the next 10 days for any location on Earth in OpenSnow.

1. Go to the "Maps" tab.
2. Tap anywhere or search for a city.
3. Tap "View Forecast".

View → Summer Forecasts

New Mexico Geography Key

Northern Mountains

→ Red River, Taos Ski Valley (north side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Angel Fire (northeast side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Sipapu (middle of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Ski Santa Fe (south side of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Pajarito (southwest side of the northern mountains - Jemez)

Central Mountains

→ Sandia Peak (Sandias)
→ Mt. Taylor backcountry (San Mateos)

Southern Mountains

→ Ski Apache (Sacramentos)
→ Ski Cloudcroft (Sacramentos)