I will be a bit brief this morning with a good summary of what I think will be chase worthy pow in the next 2-5 days. Currently the Sierra is winning the game with generally double digits near the Sierra Crest. Mammoth surpassed 300 inches last night (YTD) and reported 11-12 inches Thursday morning. In looking at telemetry the majority of snow fell with the warmer temps and high winds so conditions are likely going to be surfy. Snow density will be high. Summits had colder temps but more wind! Winds are strong Thursday morning but will decrease later. 

Below: Storm #2 in the Sierra brings 1.5 to 2.5 inches of liquid Friday night to Saturday. The European Model not shown has lower totals. This American GFS is the most bullish with 2.5 inches of liquid along the Sierra Crest and just over an inch of liquid for eastern resorts along Lake Tahoe. This will be a decent storm. I think it is reasonable to see 1.5 to 2 inches averaging out the models along the Crest. 

Below CA temps at 10K are respectable for medium density snow (16F at 10K) for the next storm. 

The Tetons are in the flow Thursday morning with several pieces of energy passing through Wyoming and most of eastern Idaho (Pebble Creek might score). While 3 inches are reported at JHMR on Thursday morning expect an additional 3-7 during the day (Storm total 6-10 by late Thursday). Targhee will see lower totals. Winds will be moderate to strong from the S, SW. Might be a good midday chase. 

Northern Utah will see snow develop by mid morning Thursday with the I-80 corridor and Cottonwoods around 2PM. Models are in disagreement with some only showing 2-4 inches by last chair near Alta and others in the 5-9 inch range. I am splitting the difference at 4-6 inches by 4PM above 7,000 feet. Lower elevation resorts will see less. Snow continues Thursday evening bringing an additional 3-6 inches for Friday (Totals in the 7-12 inch range for the Cottonwoods). Winds will light on Friday so I don't expect any major issues. Snow density will start at 10:1 (Dense) and migrate to 15:1 by Thursday evening (Medium density- Perfect for this time of year to cover the gobbles). Possible late day chase- Decent Friday chase. Not deep, but deep enough. 

Below: For Alta you can see many peaks and valleys with several events in the 6-9 inch range through Monday morning. The Sunday to Monday period might be the biggest bump. 

Below: U of U ensembles showing some uncertainty for Kirkwood ranging from 10-30 inches this weekend. Wide spaced lines indicate some model differences. It is reasonable to see 20 inches based on this chart. 

The action moves into Colorado late Thursday night through Friday. So far, I am not impressed by any single large scale event. Steamboat or areas south towards Aspen, Powderhorn, or even CB might bring 4-8 inches. Areas along I-70 and east from Eagle to Summit will see lower totals. 

The next storm is approaching the Sierra Friday night to Saturday. This has a good overnight signature with 12-15 inches or more for many resorts in both the eastern and western lake regions including Mammoth. Winds will not be strong with this event (This might be the first good storm without major wind impacts). Snow quality will be medium with snow levels near 4500 to 5,000 feet. Expect a good day Saturday. Some resorts might grab higher totals that I can fine tune in post tomorrow. 

Below: Total snowfall in Colorado through Sunday morning favoring the western corridor (Western Eagle, Pitkin, Gunnison and even Rout County (Steamboat). This will be slow build up vs any single deep event. 

That action brings additional moderate snowfall to the Rockies taking a more southerly route near Arizona (AZB), and pushes moisture into the Wasatch edging into the Tetons (Northern end of the moisture trail) and many areas of Colorado under SW flow. Thus far, chases might take you from the Sierra Saturday to the Wasatch (Saturday or Sunday) or 4 corners. Other spots to watch will be the western slope of Colorado extending north to Steamboat this weekend (Sunday- Monday). 

Below: Total snowfall through Sunday night for the west. You can see the areas of highlights in the Sierra, Ruby mountains of Nevada, Wasatch, Tetons, AZ, and western areas of Colorado. 

I might update this forecast Thursday night and will unlikely be posting Friday morning. 

PCS

NEW: Snow Ratio Forecast

You can now get a good idea of the upcoming snow quality for the next storm via our new "Snow Ratio" forecast for any location in OpenSnow.

When we talk about snow quality, such as “light and fluffy” or “heavy and wet”, we are talking about the snow-to-liquid ratio. The higher the snow-to-liquid ratio, the lighter the snow quality, and vice-versa.

1. Go to any location screen and tap the "Snow Summary" tab.
2. Scroll down to the 5-day hourly or 10-day forecast section.
3. View the 5-day hourly or daily "Snow Ratio" forecast for the next 10 days.

10:1 will be fun but will feel a little heavy. 15:1 will offer some faceshots and feel pretty light. 20:1 will be incredibly light, almost like skiing through nothing but air.

This new feature is currently available with the latest version of the OpenSnow iOS app installed (App Store > OpenSnow > Update) or on the OpenSnow website (OpenSnow.com). It will be available in the OpenSnow Android app soon.

View → Snow Ratio Forecast

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