The last storm

The storm on Thursday, October 10th left a beautiful coating of snow on the mountains of northern and central Colorado. Here are two reader-submitted pictures showing the contrast of the snow against (still) golden Aspen leaves.

First resorts to open

On Friday at 11:41 am, I received an email Press Release stating that Keystone would be opening on Saturday morning. Alright, I thought, here we go with lift-serviced skiing starting the next day and proof that Keystone’s large investment in snowmaking infrastructure had paid off with an early opening.

Then two hours later, on Friday at 1:44 pm, I received an email Press Release stating that Arapahoe Basin, just up the road from Keystone and traditionally one of the first mountains to open, would open Friday afternoon from 3:30-5:30 pm. In other words, Arapahoe Basin would open one hour and 46 minutes after I received the press release and would just edge out Keystone to be the first to open.

I and most people I've spoken with found this series of events pretty funny and had a good laugh on a Friday afternoon. Even though I bet that Arapahoe Basin's Friday-afternoon opening wasn't in Keystone's plan, the series of events still achieved its goal, which was to draw attention to Colorado's higher-elevation mountains (Arapahoe Basin, Keystone, Loveland, Copper) and their ability to make snow in the early season. So the PR angle for skiing in Colorado was satisfied and maybe even increased due to these early-season shenanigans. Usually, Loveland would be the next resort to open to the public, though they have not yet announced an opening date.

Since it’s hard for me to resist skiing and hilarious situations, a friend and I quickly jumped in a car and skied for two hours at Arapahoe Basin on Friday afternoon. I never thought that I would be riding a lift at Arapahoe Basin with skis on after 500pm, but it happened.

So if you're in need of lift-serviced turns, wait no longer as Arapahoe Basin and Keystone are both open for business. Here we go!

Snow cover and smoke

The visible satellite image from Sunday afternoon tells the snow story pretty well.

The northern and central mountains have a little bit of natural snow cover near and above treeline, while the southern mountains do not have much/any snow. Unfortunately, the lack of significant snow over the southern mountains has allowed the Decker Fire to continue burning with only 30% containment and a smoke plume visible, often during the afternoon when wind speed increases and the fire grows.

This week’s forecast

Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday will be dry and mostly sunny. Temperatures will be cold enough for nighttime snowmaking at higher elevations, and a weak storm passing to our north on Monday night will drop temperatures a few degrees on Monday night.

Then, following a dry week, Friday will likely be cloudier with a chance for showers, especially over the central and northern mountains. Temperatures should be cool enough for snowflakes to fall near and above 10,000 feet, though lower elevations will likely see light rain. This will not be a significant storm, but it is the leading shot of a more powerful storm waiting in the wings.

From Saturday night through Monday is the time that I’m watching for a potentially significant storm. My confidence is high that this storm will bring colder temperatures and snow to Colorado. My confidence is still low concerning the storm’s track and which mountains will see the deeper accumulations.

Since the storm is still about seven days away, and because there are many possibilities for how the storm will track, averaging many models to generate a snow forecast yields a few inches in the forecast from Sunday into Monday.

We show this model-average snow forecast on OpenSnow and you can compare the forecast across mountains in different views using a summary, table, or graph view. Below I show my favorite view, the graph view, which is available on our desktop website as well as our mobile website and on our mobile apps.

I apologize that we did not have a graph view on our mobile apps last season, but we worked hard to make it happen and now it’s live on our iPhone app and for 80% of our Android users (the remaining 20% should see the update within a day).

But back to the weather, if you’re seeking (or want to avoid) another early-season storm, keep your eye on the time frame from Saturday night through Monday afternoon. I’ll write a new post each morning leading up to the storm.

Following the storm on Sunday and Monday (October 20-21), we should see a few drier days, then the next chance for a storm will be around Thursday or Friday, October 24-25.

The latest models show that the Oct 24-25 storm might stay too far north to bring significant snow to Colorado, but the system is still 10 days away and there is barely any skill in accurately predicting the track of a storm that far away, so we’ll wait to see how this shakes out.

The multi-model average snow forecast for the 10 days between Thursday, October 17 – Saturday, October 26 gives us a decent chance of seeing 6+ inches of snow, with deeper totals to our north. During the early season, it’s typical that the storm track is a little to our north.

Thanks for reading and look for my next post on Tuesday morning.

JOEL GRATZ

Upcoming talks

These talks usually range from 30-45 minutes and allow me to show a little of the science behind snow forecasting, have some fun, and answer lots of questions. I’ll post details about each talk soon.

Boulder: Oct 24 @ Neptune Mountaineering

* Last year was SUPER fun. Let’s do it again!
* 6-7pm happy hour, 7-8pm talk & raffle, 8pm movie
* More details & buy tickets for $10
* Proceeds from the door prize tickets and beer sales go to CAIC

Details coming soon

* Golden: Oct 30 @ Powder7
* Frisco: Nov 8 @ Highside Brewery
* Nederland: Nov 12 @ Salto Coffee / Tin Shed Sports
* Denver: Nov 14 @ Denver Athletic Club
* Evergreen: Nov 21 @ Boone Mountain Sports
* Breckenridge: Dec 6 @ Colorado Mountain College Breckenridge
* Basalt: Dec 12 @ Bristlecone Mountain Sports

If you have a venue in a town not listed above and would like for me to give a presentation this fall, send me an email ([email protected]).

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains