Wednesday and Thursday

These will be beautiful autumn days across Colorado with warm temperatures, sunshine on Wednesday, and more clouds on Thursday. Nighttime lows should still be cold enough for snowmaking at higher elevations.

Thursday Night and Friday

This storm is now inside of two days away, so we’re getting a little more comfortable with the details.

The storm will be warm which means that snow levels will likely be near 10,000 feet on Thursday night, dropping a little lower on Friday. While the storm’s energy will be weak or at best moderate, there will be a lot of moisture in the air, and this moisture can lead to an upside surprise with snow totals at higher elevations.

All models show the most snow falling in the central and northern mountains, and the CAIC WRF 2km model is in the range of 1-5 inches, with the higher amounts at elevations near or over 11,000 feet.

Saturday break

The storm on Friday will quickly depart, and Saturday should be mostly sunny and dry. By Saturday afternoon, we should see more clouds move across the sky.

Storm Saturday night to Monday

For over 10 days, most weather forecast models have been remarkably accurate in showing a storm arriving around Sunday, October 20th.

Now, the details of this system are becoming clearer. Temperatures will be cold and therefore we’ll see snow to many valley bottoms. And while the system will not bring a lot of moisture, it will bring strong energy, and this should create respectable snow totals.

The track of the storm will favor the northern half of Colorado, and for timing, snow should start on Saturday night, there should be a stronger burst early on Sunday, then showers will continue into Monday.

Most models are showing 0.25 – 0.50 inches of precipitation, which at a 15-to-1 snow-to-liquid ratio equates to about 4-8 inches. This is a reasonable first guess for snow totals.

Following the snow showers that could hang around through Monday, we’ll likely see dry weather on Tuesday.

Then all models agree that the majority of the storminess across the United States will be over the Midwest and East Coast. However, it’s possible that some energy will clip northern and/or eastern Colorado on its way east, so we’ll need to watch the time around Thursday, October 24th and perhaps a few days after that as dates when we might see a little more snow.

Thanks so much for reading and look for my next post on Thursday morning.

JOEL GRATZ

Upcoming talks

These talks usually range from 30-45 minutes and allow me to show a little of the science behind snow forecasting, have some fun, and answer lots of questions. I’ll post details about each talk soon.

Boulder: Oct 24 @ Neptune Mountaineering

* Last year was SUPER fun. Let’s do it again!
* 6-7pm happy hour, 7-8pm talk & raffle, 8pm movie
* More details & buy tickets for $10
* Proceeds from the door prize tickets and beer sales go to CAIC

Details coming soon

* Golden: Oct 30 @ Powder7
* Frisco: Nov 8 @ Highside Brewery
* Nederland: Nov 12 @ Salto Coffee / Tin Shed Sports
* Denver: Nov 14 @ Denver Athletic Club
* Evergreen: Nov 21 @ Boone Mountain Sports
* Breckenridge: Dec 6 @ Colorado Mountain College Breckenridge
* Basalt: Dec 12 @ Bristlecone Mountain Sports

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains