Tuesday morning’s snow totals came in roughly where we expected them to be.

Our forecast was an average of 3-6 inches with 7-10 inches for favored areas with possibilities including Steamboat (west wind) Telluride and Silverton (northwest wind) and the I-70 corridor (northwest wind).

The actual totals averaged out to be in the 2-6 inch range (I haven’t listed all of the lower totals) with the highest readings at Steamboat and Telluride.

9” Steamboat
8” Telluride
7” Powderhorn
6” Aspen Highlands (in the bowl)
5” Breckenridge
4” Beaver Creek
4” Vail
4” Winter Park

The majority of this snow fell during the day on Monday and then a few inches accumulated on Monday night after lifts closed. The I-70 corridor did not really see a pop on Monday night, though the Blue Sky Basin snow stake cam at Vail did snow a quick 2-3 fluffy inches, so we did see at least a little pop.

Enjoy the soft turns on Tuesday morning.

Past Pictures

Here are three reader-summited shots during the past few days. Thanks for the pics!

Wednesday Storm

Following dry weather on Tuesday, we’ll see our next storm head into Colorado on Wednesday. The radar animation now on Tuesday morning clearly shows our previous storm over the central plains in the middle of the image and the next storm entering the Northwest in the upper-left part of the image.

Expect light snow for most mountains on Wednesday morning and Wednesday midday. Then as the storm dives far to the south of Colorado, we should see a ~12 hour period of winds from the east between about Wednesday noon and Wednesday midnight. This should favor areas east of the divide with a burst of snow possible. I’ll keep my eye on Eldora, areas in the foothills west of Denver, and even around Wolf Creek as they can get a little surprise with an east wind.

If this Wednesday afternoon/evening snowfall comes to fruition, there could be some soft turns on Thursday morning.

Thursday Night Storm

It does look like we’ll see something later Thursday into Thursday night or Friday morning. This will likely be just light snow amounts for the northern mountains.

Warm Weekend

Saturday should be mostly dry, then Sunday will be a dry and warm day with a high temperature hitting the 40s for most mountains. It’ll feel like spring, but the warmth won’t last.

Monday should be dry though the next storm might bring in cooler air and snow by later Monday or Monday night. Then expect stormy weather from Monday night through Tuesday with snow for most mountains and colder temperatures dropping into the single digits and teens. Snowfall on Tuesday should favor the mountains near and east of the divide and also perhaps the southern mountains.

On Wednesday we could see a break, and then on Thursday and Friday, northwest flow could bring consistent snowfall to the northern mountains.

The storm track from Tuesday, February 4th through Monday, February 10th is not quite ideal to bring a lot of snow to all of our mountains, but it should be active enough to bring above-average precipitation and cooler-than-average temperatures.

Looking out to the next 46 days, the outlook is pretty good. Of course, 46-day forecasts are way out in the fantasy land range, but they are fun to look at. In the graphic below, a forecast of negative values (below the “0” line) generally means a favorable setup for stormy weather somewhere around the western United States.

The green line is the average of 51 versions of the model, the black line is one version of the model, and the light grey bars show the range of all 51 versions of the model. I like that the green line (average) stays below zero line for most of the time, though the range of all models shows a great variation between highly negative (colder, snowier) and highly positive (warmer, drier). This graphic does NOT guarantee us a snowy February and early March, but at least it points to decent odds that we could see a stormy pattern more often than not. Let’s hope this is the case!

Thanks for reading!

My next update will be on Wednesday morning.

JOEL GRATZ

Something cool!

Bluebird Backcountry is opening a human-powered ski area in Kremmling, Colorado. I've been following this project for two years and it's awesome to see it come to fruition (starting a ski area is NOT easy). Check out their Kickstarter for more info.

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains