Sunday

Sunday was another gorgeous spring day with sunny skies and high temperatures that ranged from the upper 40s to the upper 50s.

Monday

Monday is starting with sunny and warm weather, and these conditions will continue through midday.

On Monday afternoon, clouds will increase and we'll start to see showers pop up as the storm approaches.

Monday Night & Tuesday

The storm is still on track to cross Colorado on Monday night and strengthen to the east of Colorado on Tuesday morning. A strengthening storm can lead to an upside surprise, so we'll have to keep an eye on Tuesday morning as the time for deeper-than-expected powder.

For accumulations, I continue to think that the southern and central mountains will see 1-5 inches of snow mostly on Monday night, and the northern mountains will be favored with 5-10 inches of accumulation with at least some of this snow falling between after the morning report, between Tuesday at 500 am and Tuesday midday.

The best chance for an upside surprise of 10-15+ inches will be along the higher elevations of the northern continental divide, including Cameron Pass, Rocky Mountain National Park, Eldora, Winter Park and Berthoud Pass, Loveland and A-Basin, and maybe Breckenridge. This upside surprise potential will be caused by the combination of a strengthening storm, moisture wrapping back around the storm and into northern Colorado, as well as a favored wind direction from the northwest.

The latest high-resolution forecast models are in somewhat decent agreement and they show that the northern divide has a higher chance for 10+ inches of snow.

The 3km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model (HRRR):

The 3km OpenSnow model:

The 2km CAIC model:

If you're looking for (maybe) the final chance for colder powder during April, Tuesday morning will be the time, and the northeastern mountains will be the place.

Temperatures at the higher elevations along the divide will dip into the low-to-mid 20s on Tuesday morning, and snow quality will be moderate - not too thick and not too fluffy. This is what we want, because fluffy snow would not cover the crunchy base at all, and moderate snow density should do an okay job of covering the base. We'll likely still feel the bottom at most mountains, but if we can get more than 10-12 inches of moderate-density snow, conditions could be surfy and soft.

The snow should end by late morning or midday Tuesday and we may see some sunshine after that time, which will quickly turn the new snow to mush. So get after it early on Tuesday morning.

Wednesday should be dry, then waves of storm energy and moisture will bring showers to the northern mountains on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Temperatures will be warm, in the 30s and low 40s, so we'll likely see a mix of snowflakes at higher elevations and raindrops at lower elevations. 

We should end the weekend with dry weather on Sunday, April 21, and then the following week will be warm with a mix of dry weather for a few days and also showers on some of the days, though it's impossible to pin down the details at this point.

Description: The graphic above shows 51 versions of the European EPS ensemble model (top) on the y-axis (vertical) and 15 days from left to right on the x-axis (horizontal). Each colored rectangle shows a chance for precipitation, with grey equaling little precipitation, green equaling light precipitation, and blues and oranges showing significant precipitation. The more the colors are aligned vertically, the higher the confidence in the forecast.

I'll continue to post daily updates through Wednesday, and then I will transition to less frequent updates as we wind down the active weather season.

My next update will be Tuesday morning.

Thanks for reading!

Joel Gratz

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Snowmass, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains