Scattered heavy rain is moving through New England on Friday morning associated with a storm off to our west. Warm and humid air out ahead of the storm is driving an atmospheric river of moisture into the region with decent upslope rain, fog, and wind across the mountains. For context, the current temperature on the summit of Mt. Washington at 6AM ET on Friday is 42F with 100% relative humidity and winds gusting out of the south between 90 and 100 MPH.

Radar animation ending at 5:30AM on Friday morning. 

As you can imagine the conditions are not great out there on Friday. Snow is pretty soft and conditions are wet on the ground and in the air. Gusty winds will likely also pose an issue with lifts. Maybe sit the day out and hold out for the weekend? 

The backside of the storm will feature snow moving across New York State on Saturday in cooler northwest winds that will likely bring a mix of mountain rain and snow showers by the time it reaches Vermont and portions of central New England. Snow levels settle around mid-mountain near ~2500 feet with 1-2" possible at resorts up and down the spine of the Greens and over in the Whites. 

NAM model forecast animation for 2AM Saturday through 2PM Sunday.

Another round of warmer and wetter weather is expected again next week with most model guidance pointing toward a storm moving to our west again next Wednesday-Thursday (17-18 April). That storm will likely be followed by some cooler weather and maybe some wet snow thereafter through the 24th. The end result is a climate outlook by the Climate Prediction Center that features above normal temperatures in the 6-10-day forecast and below normal temperatures in the 8-10-day forecast.

NOAA Climate Prediction Center temperature outlooks through 25 April.

The potential for snow in the cooler pattern during 21-23 April is reflected by the ECMWF ensemble grid for 24-hour snowfall below in central Vermont at Rutland. The odds of heavy snow are low, but nevertheless point toward a period of more stable snow conditions on the slopes to round out the month.

ECMWF ensemble grid for 24-hour snowfall in central Vermont at Rutland. 

Thanks for reading. My plan is for an update on Sunday and then we'll see what's in store for next week. I'll likely continue with updates every few days and look to post a season summary toward the end of the month.

-Dr. Jay

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