The good news is that we saw another round of fresh snow overnight adding to the impressive March totals!

The bad news, especially for me as a forecaster, is that every single model busted on the precipitation forecasts for the storm, which is very rare. Usually when people talk about a storm busting it's because they were reading a forecast someplace else that was over forecasting/hyping a forecast, or the storm isn't done yet, but this was a real bust overnight.

The models for days were showing 1-2 inches of precipitation falling along the crest with an average of around 1.5 inches. Here is a look at the WPC's blended model forecast from yesterday ahead of the storm's arrival.

Looking at the SNOTEL sensors from Sugar Bowl down to Kirkwood they only show that 0.6 - 1.0 inches of precipitation fell along the crest overnight, which is half of what the models were forecasting, and they were all wrong. 

What happened is that the band of precipitation with the cold front fell apart as it reached the northern Sierra, when the models had that happening after if moved south of Tahoe. I was looking at the radar last night and it looked like something was wrong, but I went to sleep hoping I was wrong. Unfortunately, I wasn't...

The ski areas are reporting 2-10 inches of new snow overnight, which is half of the final forecast I had for 6-20 inches. 

If you have been following my forecasts for the last 18 seasons, you know that I don't like to be wrong and take it hard, obviously by my rant above. But I'm not sure that there was anything I could have done differently this time. Every single model failed and I have to rely on their precipitation forecasts for my formulas...

Thursday Weather:

We will see a little clearing Thursday with partly sunny skies and dropping winds, with highs in the 30s. We could see some scattered snow showers, but only expecting very light accumulations if any. But I'll wait another day to post my forecaster report card for the storm. It's the worst report card I can remember in a while, and it will be a sea of red...

Friday - Sunday Storm:

More good news besides the fresh snow that fell overnight is that we have more snow coming for the weekend to end an impressive March. The closed low will approach the West Coast on Friday and will spread snow showers over the Sierra through the day. Then steadier snow showers are expected Friday night into Saturday as the low moves down the coast.

The flow turns easterly on Saturday on the north side of the low, and the models show steadier snow northeast of the lake through Saturday night. 

Then scattered snow showers could linger into Sunday. Highs in the 30s through the weekend. We are not expecting strong winds with this storm. 

With the way the precipitation is rotating around the low as it moves south and east down the coast and inland well to our south, the models show almost as much precipitation falling on the east side of the Sierra as on the west side. The latest model runs show a high-end of 1-2 inches of precipitation falling again with this storm but over 3 days and not in one night.

The snow levels will fluctuate between 4000-6000 ft. through the weekend, with lower snow levels at night and with heavier bands of precip, and higher snow levels during the day and with lighter precipitation. But overall we should see all snow to lake level through the end of the storm. The snow ratios could average around 9-15:1 between 6000-9000 ft.

Here is my updated snowfall forecast for Friday through Sunday. Around half of the snowfall is expected by Saturday morning with the other half falling Saturday into Sunday.

I'll put out the final forecast on Friday morning. This storm should be skiable each day with several inches of fresh snow expected both Saturday and Sunday morning. 

Monday - Wednesday:

High pressure builds in over the West for Monday through Wednesday.

That will quickly bring a return of spring weather. Mostly sunny skies are expected each day with highs into the 40s on Monday, and then into the 50s for the lower elevations on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The long-range models continue to show a trough digging back into the West from the 4th - 8th.

That will bring a return of colder air and will open the door to weak storms dropping down from the north. The first could be associated with the initial cold front on Thursday the 4th, and then maybe another weak system or two through the 8th. But overall nothing significant showing up right now.

Fantasy Range:

By the 9th through the 2nd week of April, the long-range models continue to show high pressure in the eastern Pacific shifting closer to or over the West Coast.

That could be game over for storms, at least of any significance, with nice spring weather locking in.

Most ski areas close between the middle to end of April, so we'll have to see if any pattern changes show up before then, but no signs of that right now. This weekend has the chance to be the last decent storm, at least for the ski areas that close sooner than later. We'll watch the trends...

Stay tuned...BA